Identifying the reciprocal causation between hit-and-run behavior and crash injury severity

Hit-and-run behavior is believed to exacerbate the injury severity of traffic crashes due to the delayed emergency response for the victims. However, several previous studies indicated the opposite finding that hit-and-run crashes were associated with less severe injuries. The relevant studies mainly identified the statistical associations between hit-and-run behavior and injury severity without revealing causation between them. To this end, the study aims to explore the reciprocal causation between the two variables.

The two-stage probit model with endogenous regressors is employed to identify the reciprocal causation between hit-and-run behavior and crash injury severity for single- and two-vehicle crashes, respectively, with the use of crash data extracted from the Crash Report Sampling System and Fatality Analysis Reporting System (2016-2019).

The results indicate that 1) for both single- and two-vehicle crashes, the fleeing behavior can significantly increase the injury severity of the victims in the crashes while the severe injury of the victims has a negative impact on the propensity of such behavior, 2) the propensity of hit-and-run behavior is influenced by various instrumental variables such as driver age, gender, alcohol involvement, weekday, area type, and light condition, and 3) crash injury severity is significantly related to the victim age, gender, and vehicle damage.

There is a reciprocal causation between hit-and-run behavior and injury severity in traffic crashes. The analytical results can provide a reasonable explanation for the counterintuitive finding on hit-an-run crashes and help mitigate the injury severity.