Projecting urban flood risk through hydrodynamic modeling under shared socioeconomic pathways

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Climate Change Adaptation

Background:

• Accurate urban flood risk assessment is crucial for climate change adaptation.
• Conventional methods struggle to capture flooding complexity and often overlook critical indicator changes.
• Existing research primarily focuses on hazard shifts, neglecting other vital risk factors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a comprehensive index system for urban flood risk assessment.
• To quantify future changes in key flood risk indicators under climate change.
• To identify primary drivers of future flood risk and propose adaptation measures.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the InfoWorks ICM model for urban flood hazard simulation.
• Employed the CLUMondo model for land use change predictions.
• Established a comprehensive index system integrating hazard, land use, and socio-economic factors.

Main Results:

• Projected an 18% increase in high urban flood risk areas, concentrated centrally.
• Identified inundation depth and land use as dominant risk indicators across the study area.
• Highlighted micro-topography's significant impact in low-lying regions and rising GDP/population influence under higher emission scenarios.

Conclusions:

• Future urban flood risk is expected to exacerbate under climate change.
• Methodological advancements offer improved insights for flood risk assessment.
• Findings provide actionable guidance for policymakers to develop targeted adaptation strategies.