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Influenza vaccine allocation in tropical settings under constrained resources
Joseph L Servadio1,2, Marc Choisy3,4, Pham Quang Thai5,6
1Department of Biology, Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA.
PNAS Nexus
|October 3, 2024
Summary
Prioritizing influenza vaccination for school-aged children (10-19) in tropical settings significantly reduces mortality. Year-round vaccination and optimized distribution across age groups are key for effective influenza control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Influenza virus seasonality and vaccine strategies vary globally, impacting tropical regions differently.
- Current vaccine recommendations often target high-risk groups, but evidence suggests broader benefits from vaccinating younger, high-contact populations.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate optimal influenza vaccination strategies in a tropical, low-income setting.
- To determine the most effective age groups and timing for vaccine allocation to minimize influenza mortality.
Main Methods:
- Development and parameterization of an age-structured epidemiological model for influenza transmission in a tropical context.
- Simulation of various vaccination scenarios, including different timings, age allocations, and vaccine supply levels (10-90%).
Main Results:
- Year-round influenza vaccination proved more effective than concentrated annual distribution.
- Prioritizing the 10-19 age group for vaccination minimized annual influenza mortality across most vaccine supply levels.
- Optimal strategies require allocating a plurality of vaccines to school-aged children, with careful distribution to other groups.
Conclusions:
- Vaccination strategies focusing on indirect benefits, such as targeting school-aged children, can achieve lower mean and minimum influenza mortality compared to strategies focused solely on direct benefits (e.g., elderly).
- While targeting children is crucial, optimizing the distribution of remaining vaccines to other age groups is also necessary for comprehensive mortality reduction.
