Hospitalizations and emergency attendance averted by influenza vaccination in Victoria, Australia, 2017 - 2019

Seasonal influenza epidemics result in high levels of healthcare utilization. Vaccination is an effective strategy to reduce the influenza-related burden of disease. However, reporting vaccine effectiveness does not convey the population impacts of influenza vaccination. We aimed to calculate the burden of influenza-related hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) attendance averted by influenza vaccination in Victoria, Australia, from 2017 to 2019, and associated economic savings. We applied a compartmental model to hospitalizations and ED attendances with influenza-specific, and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) with the International Classification of Diseases, 10^th Revision, Australian Modification (ICD-10-AM) diagnostic codes of J09-J11 and J09-J18, respectively. We estimated an annual average of 7657 (120 per 100000 population) hospitalizations and 20560 (322 per 100000 population) ED attendances over the study period, associated with A$85 million hospital expenditure. We estimated that influenza vaccination averted an annual average of 1182 [range: 556 - 2277] hospitalizations and 3286 [range: 1554 - 6257] ED attendances and reduced the demand for healthcare services at the influenza season peak. This equated to approximately A13 [range: A6 - A25] million of savings over the study period. Calculating the burden averted is feasible in Australia and auseful approach to demonstrate the health and economic benefits of influenza vaccination.