Projected changes in heatwaves over Central and South America using high-resolution regional climate simulations

Area of Science:

• Climate Science
• Environmental Science
• Extreme Weather Events

Background:

• Heatwaves (HWs) represent a significant threat to human populations and ecosystems globally.
• Understanding future heatwave trends is crucial for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project changes in heatwave characteristics across Latin America under different emissions scenarios.
• To quantify the impact of climate change on population exposure to heatwaves in the region.

Main Methods:

• Utilized bias-corrected, high-resolution regional climate simulations.
• Analyzed projections under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP2.6 (low emissions) and RCP8.5 (high emissions).

Main Results:

• Heatwaves are projected to increase in frequency, duration, and intensity by mid-century under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5.
• A significant rise in population exposure to heatwave days is anticipated, particularly in Central and South America.
• Even the lower RCP2.6 scenario shows a doubling of heatwave frequency across most of the region.

Conclusions:

• Climate change is the primary driver of increased heatwave exposure.
• Adhering to the low emissions pathway (RCP2.6) could reduce heatwave exposure by 57% in Central America and 50% in South America.
• Urgent control of anthropogenic emissions and implementation of sustainable practices are necessary to mitigate heatwave impacts.