Digital twin simulation modelling shows that mass testing and local lockdowns effectively controlled COVID-19 in...

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health Policy
• Infectious Disease Modeling

Background:

• Evaluating COVID-19 mitigation strategies is crucial for future pandemic preparedness.
• Denmark implemented extensive mass testing and local lockdowns during the Alpha wave.
• These interventions aimed to control hospital admissions and preserve societal freedoms.

Purpose of the Study:

• To quantify the impact of mass testing and local lockdowns on hospital admissions.
• To assess the effect of these interventions on societal freedom during the Alpha wave.
• To inform future epidemic preparedness strategies.

Main Methods:

• An individual-based simulation model replicating the Danish population was utilized.
• The model incorporated evolving restrictions, vaccination status, seasonality, and testing strategies.
• Adaptive human behavior in response to incidence levels was integrated.

Main Results:

• Simulations indicated a 150% increase in hospital admissions without mass testing.
• The absence of local lockdowns would have led to a 50% rise in hospitalizations.
• Excluding local lockdowns was equivalent to an additional 21 days of strict national lockdown.

Conclusions:

• The combined strategy of mass testing and local lockdowns effectively mitigated hospitalizations.
• These interventions likely enhanced overall societal freedom during the Alpha wave.
• Mass testing and local lockdowns offer a viable approach to prevent healthcare system strain during high-transmission periods.