Mpox in People With HIV: Predictors of Diagnosis, Outcomes, and Vaccine Effectiveness in a Multisite Cohort

Since its global reemergence in 2022, monkeypox (mpox) has demonstrated increased incidence and severity among people with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV [PWH]). Predictors of mpox diagnosis, vaccination, and outcomes among PWH are limited.

We included PWH with primary care visits after 1 January 2022 at 9 US sites participating in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinic Systems Network. We identified mpox diagnosed between 1 June 2022 and 31 May 2023, through a combination of polymerase chain reaction result, diagnosis code, and/or tecovirimat receipt. We examined validated clinical diagnoses, laboratory results, vaccine data, and patient reported outcomes. We evaluated relative risks (RR) of mpox diagnosis, hospitalization, tecovirimat treatment, and vaccine receipt.

Among 19 777 PWH in care, 413 mpox cases (all male sex at birth) occurred (2.2 cases/100 person-years). Age <40 years, geographic region, Hispanic/Latine ethnicity, lack of antiretroviral therapy, detectable HIV viral load, and recent bacterial sexually transmitted infection predicted mpox diagnosis. PWH with CD4 200-349 cells/mm3 were most likely to be hospitalized (adjusted RR, 3.20; 95% confidence interval: 1.44-7.09) compared to CD4 ≥500, but half as likely as those with CD4 <200 to receive tecovirimat. Overall, smallpox/mpox vaccine effectiveness of ≥1 vaccine was 71% (adjusted RR, 0.29; 95% confidence interval: .14-.47) at preventing mpox, and 86% or better with CD4 ≥350 or HIV viral suppression. Non-Hispanic Black PWH were less likely to be vaccinated than other racial/ethnic identities.

PWH not on antiretroviral therapy or with unsuppressed HIV were more likely to be diagnosed with, and hospitalized for, mpox. Mpox/smallpox vaccine effectiveness was high, inclusive of those with low CD4 count and HIV viremia.