The Population Typology of Conspiracy Beliefs About Sars-Cov-2 Origin in Russia Based on Predictive Modelling of...

We examined the prevalence and spread of conspiracy beliefs about the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic among representatives of the Russian population. Our study aimed to identify belief clusters and develop predictive models to understand the factors that influence conspiracy beliefs, particularly in the context of how they might evolve in response to socio-political events and cause mental disturbances, thus in relation to specific pathways of the infodemic and psychodemic waves that spread among vulnerable population groups.

Data respondents to the international COMET-G study living in Russia during pandemic period (n=7,777) were analyzed using descriptive statistics, K-means clustering, and various machine learning models, including gradient boosting. We identified distinct populations depending on predominant beliefs about COVID-19 pandemic origins, and applied game theory (Shapely additive explanations) to determine the most influential variables in predicting cluster membership.

Four distinct belief clusters emerged, which we designate as Naturalists, Conspiracists, COVID-Sceptics, and the Incoherent Attitude groups. The Incoherent Attitude cluster constituted 20.8% of the sample, and was particularly associated with mental health signs such as sleep disturbances and the use of psychotropic medications. Internet use and mental health-related factors, as well as the respondents' education level, were key predictors of mental disturbances with mediating effects of the conspiracy views across all clusters. Conspiracy beliefs about COVID-19 origin were highly fluid/variable, often being shaped by external sociopolitical factors rather than objective health data.

The cluster with Incoherent Attitude regarding COVID-pandemic origins, which had an association with psychoticism, showed a greater predisposition for mental health problems, than did the Conspiracist, Naturalist and Sceptic clusters. We suppose that underlying psychoticism bears a relation to their sleep problems and resorting to use of psychotropic medications. These results emphasizes the global health need for implementing target-focused and selective strategies that address public misinformation and promote the adoption of critical thinking skills to mitigate the impact of conspiracy theories, considering the factors of education level and pre-existing mental disorders.