Prediction begins with diagnosis: Estimating seizure recurrence risk in the First Seizure Clinic

To assess the feasibility of using a seizure recurrence prediction tool in a First Seizure Clinic, considering (1) the accuracy of initial clinical diagnoses and (2) performance of automated computational models in predicting seizure recurrence after first unprovoked seizure (FUS).

To assess diagnostic accuracy, we analysed all sustained and revised diagnoses in patients seen at a First Seizure Clinic over 5 years with 6+ months follow-up ('accuracy cohort', n = 487). To estimate prediction of 12-month seizure recurrence after FUS, we used a logistic regression of clinical factors on a multicentre FUS cohort ('prediction cohort', n = 181), and compared performance to a recently published seizure recurrence model.

Initial diagnosis was sustained over 6+ months follow-up in 69% of patients in the 'accuracy cohort'. Misdiagnosis occurred in 5%, and determination of unclassified diagnosis in 9%. Progression to epilepsy occurred in 17%, either following FUS or initial acute symptomatic seizure. Within the 'prediction cohort' with FUS, 12-month seizure recurrence rate was 41% (95% CI [33.8%, 48.5%]). Nocturnal seizure, focal seizure semiology and developmental disability were predictive factors. Our model yielded an Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.60 (95% CI [0.59, 0.64]).

High clinical accuracy can be achieved at the initial visit to a First Seizure Clinic. This shows that diagnosis will not limit the application of seizure recurrence prediction tools in this context. However, based on the modest performance of currently available seizure recurrence prediction tools using clinical factors, we conclude that data beyond clinical factors alone will be needed to improve predictive performance.