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Dynamic modeling of human error in industrial maintenance through structural analysis and system dynamics
Vahideh Bafandegan Emroozi1, Mostafa Kazemi1, Alireza Pooya1
1Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
Summary
Quantifying human error probability (HEP) in maintenance is key to preventing accidents. This study uses MICMAC and system dynamics to model influencing factors and predict human error for better decision-making.
Area of Science:
- Industrial Engineering
- Occupational Safety and Health
- Risk Management
Background:
- Human error is a major cause of industrial accidents and operational disruptions, particularly in maintenance.
- Quantifying human error probability (HEP) and understanding influencing factors are crucial for mitigating risks.
- Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) dynamically impact human error, necessitating predictive modeling.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine and simulate HEP in cement factory maintenance tasks using PSFs.
- To analyze the interdependencies and impacts of factors influencing human error, occupational accidents, and costs.
- To forecast human error behavior over time and support managerial decision-making.
Main Methods:
- Cross-impact matrix multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC) analysis to assess factor relationships and impacts.
- System Dynamics (SD) modeling to forecast system behavior and simulate various scenarios.
- Integration of MICMAC analysis with SD for optimized human error prediction.
Main Results:
- MICMAC analysis identified and classified the dependencies and impacts of factors on HEP, accidents, and costs.
- The integrated MICMAC-SD model provides a framework for forecasting human error dynamics.
- Multiple scenarios were generated to illustrate potential outcomes based on HEP variations.
Conclusions:
- Understanding and quantifying HEP, considering dynamic PSFs, is essential for effective risk management in maintenance.
- The MICMAC-SD approach offers a robust method for predicting and managing human error.
- Informed managerial decisions based on HEP forecasting can improve safety and reduce operational disruptions.
Keywords:
Human error probabilitymaintenanceoccupational accidentsperformance shaping factorssystem dynamicsMore Related Videos
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