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Risk factor analysis and prediction model construction for severe adenovirus pneumonia in children

Yaowen Liang1, Jinhuan Wu2, Gang Chen3

  • 1The Second Hospital of Nanjing, Affiliated Hospital to Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, China.

Italian Journal of Pediatrics
|October 10, 2024
PubMed

Insights

This study identified key risk factors for severe adenovirus pneumonia in children, including neutrophils, D-dimer, fibrinogen degradation products, B cells, and lactate dehydrogenase. A new prediction model demonstrates strong clinical utility for early disease detection.

Area of Science:

  • Pediatric Infectious Diseases
  • Clinical Epidemiology
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Severe adenovirus pneumonia poses a significant mortality risk in children.
  • Limited research exists on predictive models for severe adenovirus pneumonia.
  • Risk prediction models are crucial for individualized patient management and early intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify clinical risk factors associated with the progression to severe adenovirus pneumonia in children.
  • To develop and validate a predictive model for severe adenovirus pneumonia.
  • To evaluate the clinical applicability of the developed prediction model.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of 699 children with adenovirus pneumonia hospitalized between January 2017 and March 2024.
  • Utilized Ridge regression and multiple logistic regression to identify risk factors from 44 variables.
  • Constructed and evaluated a prediction model for severe adenovirus pneumonia.

Main Results:

  • Neutrophils, D-dimer, fibrinogen degradation products, B cells, and lactate dehydrogenase were identified as significant risk factors.
  • The prediction model demonstrated strong predictive power with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.974.
  • The Hosmer-Lemeshow test (P=0.547) indicated good model fit.

Conclusions:

  • The study successfully identified key clinical variables predicting severe adenovirus pneumonia in children.
  • A novel prediction model was developed, exhibiting significant clinical application value.
  • Early identification of at-risk children can facilitate timely and targeted treatment strategies.
Abstract

Keywords:
ChildrenHuman adenovirusModelPneumonia

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