Longitudinal panel networks of risk and protective factors for early adolescent suicidality in the ABCD sample

Rates of youth suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs) are rising, and younger age at onset increases vulnerability to negative outcomes. However, few studies have investigated STBs in early adolescence (ages 10-13), and accurate prediction of youth STBs remains poor. Network analyses that can examine pairwise associations between many theoretically relevant variables may identify complex pathways of risk for early adolescent STBs. The present study applied longitudinal network analysis to examine interrelations between STBs and several previously identified risk and protective factors. Data came from 9,854 youth in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study cohort (M_age = 9.90 ± .62 years, 63% white, 53% female at baseline). Youth and their caregivers completed an annual measurement battery between ages 9-10 through 11-12 years. Panel Graphical Vector Autoregressive models evaluated associations between STBs and several mental health symptoms, socioenvironmental factors, life stressors, and substance use. In the contemporaneous and between-subjects networks, direct associations were observed between STBs and internalizing symptoms, substance use, family conflict, lower parental monitoring, and lower school protective factors. Potential indirect pathways of risk for STBs were also observed. Age-specific interventions may benefit from prioritizing internalizing symptoms and early substance use, as well as promoting positive school and family support.