Prediction of post-ESD esophageal stricture by a nomogram and risk factor analysis of ineffective oral steroids...

Several risk models for esophageal stricture after endoscopic submucosal dissection have been developed. However, some of them did not include the use of steroids in the risk analysis. Glucocorticoid sensitivity mediated by glucocorticoid receptor expression has not been discussed in this condition.

Clinical and endoscopic characteristics were included in the logistic regression model to establish a nomogram for stenosis prediction. The score for each risk factor was estimated. Risk factors of ineffective oral steroid prophylaxis were analyzed and glucocorticoid receptor expressions were detected by immunohistochemistry.

Three hundred fourteen patients of endoscopic submucosal dissection for esophageal superficial neoplasms were included to develop the nomogram. The circumferential range(≤ 3/4, 3/4-1 or the whole circumference), longitudinal diameter reached 4 cm (yes or not) and lesion location (the cervical and upper thoracic part, the middle thoracic part or the lower thoracic part) consisted of the nomogram. Patients have a high risk of esophageal stricture if they have a total point greater than 36. In the simplified risk score model, the corresponding cutoff score was 1. 92 patients with oral steroid prophylaxis were separately analyzed and the circumferential mucosal defect involving 7/8 or more was an independent risk factor of ineffective prevention (OR 12.2, 95%CI 5.27-28.11). The expression of glucocorticoid receptor β was higher in the stricture group (p = 0.042 for AOD; p = 0.016 for the scoring system).

We established a nomogram for esophageal stricture prediction. Depending on the characteristics of lesions, it is possible to estimate the risk of stricture under routine post-ESD treatments (no steroids or oral steroids). Alternative treatments should be considered if the risk is extremely high, especially for patients with mucosal defects involving 7/8 or more of circumference in which oral steroid treatment tends to be ineffective. The higher glucocorticoid receptor β may indicate potential glucocorticoid resistance.