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Life tables are versatile across various fields, providing a quantitative basis for analyzing mortality and survival rates. Whether used by demographers, actuaries, epidemiologists, or sociologists, life tables offer valuable insights into the dynamics of life and death, facilitating informed decisions in public health, insurance, conservation, and beyond. Their broad applicability highlights the interconnectedness of demographic data with practical outcomes in everyday life and strategic...
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This study introduces new probabilistic methods for projecting subnational life expectancy, building on national models. The proposed AR(1) method offers improved accuracy and calibration for regional mortality projections.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Statistical modeling
  • Public health

Background:

  • Subnational mortality projections are crucial for demographers.
  • Existing national models lack regional specificity and ease of use.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a probabilistic method for projecting subnational life expectancy.
  • To adapt the UN's national Bayesian hierarchical model for regional use.
  • To create user-friendly projection tools.

Main Methods:

  • Proposed three probabilistic projection methods for subnational life expectancy.
  • Two methods use simple scaling.
  • The third method employs a heteroskedastic first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) process for regional life expectancy deviations from national averages.

Main Results:

  • The proposed methods, particularly the AR(1) model, outperformed comparative methods in out-of-sample projections.
  • Models demonstrated good calibration for individual regions.
  • The AR(1) method showed superior performance in capturing crossover patterns between regions.

Conclusions:

  • The developed methods provide accurate and well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts for subnational life expectancy.
  • While generally effective, limitations exist in precisely modeling within-country variation.
  • The AR(1) method remains the best available option for addressing these regional projection challenges.