Lagged effects of climate factors on bacillary dysentery in western China

Evidence has shown that the incidence of bacillary dysentery (BD) is associated with climatic factors. However, the lagged effects of climatic factors on BD are still unclear, especially lacking research evidence from arid and semi-arid regions. Therefore, this study aims to add new insights into this research field.

Spatial autocorrelation, time series analysis and spatiotemporal scans were used to perform descriptive analyses of BD cases from 2009 to 2019. On the basis of monthly data from 2015 to 2019, multivariable distributed lag non-linear models were used to investigate the lagged effects of climatic factors on BD.

The hot spots for BD incidence are gradually decreasing and becoming increasingly concentrated in the southern part of Gansu Province. The maximum cumulative relative risks for monthly average temperature, sunshine duration, average relative humidity and precipitation were 3.21, 1.64, 1.55 and 1.41, respectively. The lagged effects peaked either in the current month or with a 1-month lag, and the shape of the exposure-response curve changed with the increase in maximum lag time. After stratification by per capita gross domestic product, there were differences in the effects.

Climatic factors can influence the incidence of BD, with effects varying across different lag times. It is imperative to vigilantly track the disparities in the incidence of BD attributable to economic factors.