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A global poleward shift of atmospheric rivers
1Department of Geography and Earth Research Institute, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
Science Advances
|October 11, 2024
Summary
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are shifting poleward due to tropical Pacific cooling. This shift, driven by ocean variability, impacts extratropical precipitation patterns and highlights AR sensitivity to climate change.
Area of Science:
- Climatology
- Atmospheric Science
- Oceanography
Background:
- Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are crucial for extratropical precipitation and poleward moisture transport.
- Climate models predict increased AR activity due to anthropogenic forcing.
- Reanalyses reveal a significant poleward shift in ARs over recent decades.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the drivers behind the observed poleward shift of atmospheric rivers.
- To understand the role of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature variability in AR migration.
- To elucidate the feedback mechanisms influencing AR behavior.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of reanalysis data to track AR shifts.
- Investigation of sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the tropical eastern Pacific.
- Examination of eddy-mean flow feedback mechanisms.
Main Results:
- A cooling tendency in tropical eastern Pacific SST since 2000 is identified as a key driver of the global AR shift.
- The shift is characterized by increased ARs at higher latitudes (50°N/S) and decreased activity at lower latitudes (30°N/S).
- A tropical-driven eddy-mean flow feedback mechanism is implicated in this shift, also influencing interannual variability via ENSO.
Conclusions:
- Low-frequency tropical Pacific SST variability is a primary cause of the observed poleward AR shift.
- The identified mechanism demonstrates the sensitivity of ARs to large-scale circulation changes.
- Future AR behavior will be influenced by both internal climate variability and external forcing.
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