Long-term breast cancer response to CDK4/6 inhibition defined by TP53-mediated geroconversion

Inhibition of CDK4/6 kinases has led to improved outcomes in breast cancer. Nevertheless, only a minority of patients experience long-term disease control. Using a large, clinically annotated cohort of patients with metastatic hormone receptor-positive (HR+) breast cancer, we identify TP53 loss (27.6%) and MDM2 amplification (6.4%) to be associated with lack of long-term disease control. Human breast cancer models reveal that p53 loss does not alter CDK4/6 activity or G1 blockade but instead promotes drug-insensitive p130 phosphorylation by CDK2. The persistence of phospho-p130 prevents DREAM complex assembly, enabling cell-cycle re-entry and tumor progression. Inhibitors of CDK2 can overcome p53 loss, leading to geroconversion and manifestation of senescence phenotypes. Complete inhibition of both CDK4/6 and CDK2 kinases appears to be necessary to facilitate long-term response across genomically diverse HR+ breast cancers.