Deep-learning and data-resampling: A novel approach to predict cyanobacterial alert levels in a reservoir

The proliferation of harmful algal blooms results in adverse impacts on aquatic ecosystems and public health. Early warning system monitors algal bloom occurrences and provides management strategies for promptly addressing high-concentration algal blooms following their occurrence. In this study, we aimed to develop a proactive prediction model for cyanobacterial alert levels to enable efficient decision-making in management practices. We utilized 11 years of water quality, hydrodynamic, and meteorological data from a reservoir that experiences frequent harmful cyanobacterial blooms in summer. We used these data to construct a deep-learning model, specifically a 1D convolution neural network (1D-CNN) model, to predict cyanobacterial alert levels one week in advance. However, the collected distribution of algal alert levels was imbalanced, leading to the biased training of data-driven models and performance degradation in model predictions. Therefore, an adaptive synthetic sampling method was applied to address the imbalance in the minority class data and improve the predictive performance of the 1D-CNN. The adaptive synthetic sampling method resolved the imbalance in the data during the training phase by incorporating an additional 156 and 196 data points for the caution and warning levels, respectively. The selected optimal 1D-CNN model with a filter size of 5 and comprising 16 filters achieved training and testing prediction accuracies of 97.3% and 85.0%, respectively. During the test phase, the prediction accuracies for each algal alert level (L-0, L-1, and L-2) were 89.9%, 79.2%, and 71.4%, respectively, indicating reasonably consistent predictive results for all three alert levels. Therefore, the use of synthetic data addressed data imbalances and enhanced the predictive performance of the data-driven model. The reliable forecasts produced by the improved model can support the development of management strategies to mitigate harmful algal blooms in reservoirs and can aid in building an early warning system to facilitate effective responses.