Towards strategic interventions for global food security in 2050.

Area of Science:

• Agricultural Science
• Environmental Science
• Food Security Studies

Background:

• Global food security is a critical concern, especially regarding major cereal crops.
• Projecting future production is essential for understanding challenges by 2050.
• Agroecological Zones (AEZs) influence crop production and vulnerability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore global food security challenges by projecting cereal production under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
• To identify regions at critical risk of food insecurity by 2050.
• To assess the impact of mitigation strategies on future food security.

Main Methods:

• Utilizing Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for future projections.
• Analyzing cereal production, water stress, and import dependency.
• Mapping Agroecological Zones (AEZs) to assess regional vulnerabilities.

Main Results:

• Critical risks identified in Africa (Chad, Sudan, Algeria, Somalia, Namibia), Central Asia, Middle East (Saudi Arabia), western USA, and Australia due to water stress and production deficits.
• Increasing harvested area can significantly reduce risks and potentially create surpluses in some regions.
• Persistent cereal production deficits and high import dependency projected for Iran, Venezuela, Sub-Saharan Africa, Saudi Arabia, and parts of Southeast Asia by mid-century.

Conclusions:

• Water-saving technologies and effective governance are crucial for balancing crop production and water use.
• Addressing water scarcity is paramount for achieving global food security.
• Strategic interventions are necessary to mitigate risks in vulnerable regions and ensure sustainable food supplies.