Spatiotemporal response of microplastics to natural and anthropogenic factors in estuarine waters

Riverine outflow is the primary pathway for transporting microplastics from terrestrial to marine environments, making estuaries hotspots for microplastics pollution. However, how and to what extent natural and anthropogenic factors affect the distribution of microplastics in estuarine waters remains largely unknown. A meta-analysis of 126 estuaries from 93 studies revealed a global median microplastics abundance of 196.9 items/m³, with a range from 0.007 ± 0.003 to 792,000 ± 138,000 items/m³. Microplastics were more abundant in estuaries in Asia and Oceania compared to Europe and South America. The microplastic abundance in estuarine waters was positively correlated with regional population density, per capita plastic waste, agricultural land proportion, and silt content, while the human development index (HDI) and mean annual precipitation displayed negative effects on microplastic abundance. Notably, HDI was the dominant factor influencing microplastic abundance in estuarine waters. In developing countries, microplastic abundance in estuarine waters showed positive changes, whereas it remained stable in developed countries over time. This study offers critical insights into the effects of natural and anthropogenic factors on the distribution patterns of microplastics in estuarine waters, providing important support for future management of microplastics pollution in estuaries.