Patterns of Migration Following Dementia Diagnosis

Diseases have historically prompted individual relocations to mitigate the risk of disease acquisition or improve access to care. As dementia prevalence increases, comprehending the migration patterns of affected individuals is vital for public policy.

To quantify the association of dementia diagnosis with migration patterns by examining the proportion of individuals with dementia who relocate, the timing of their moves relative to diagnosis, and the nature of their new living arrangements, whether in institutional settings or different households.

This cohort study leveraged a comprehensive dataset of national Medicare claims and assessments spanning from 2012 to 2020, including Medicare Beneficiary Summary File and nursing home administrative datasets. The study focused on beneficiaries who received diagnoses in 2016 of dementia, myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or colon cancer. Analyses were performed from March 2023 to August 2024.

The primary outcome was migration, defined as change in county or state. The analysis distinguished between migrations with and without a nursing home stay. By tracking patients' residential county for 4 years before and after diagnosis, a difference-in-differences approach was used to contrast migration tendencies associated with dementia against the other 3 conditions.

The sample included 1 626 127 Medicare beneficiaries (mean [SD] age, 80.1 [8.0] years; 922 194 women [56.7%]) who received diagnoses of the 4 conditions in 2016. In total, 818 862 had a new dementia diagnosis (age, 82.0 [7.8] years; 492 146 women [60.1%]). Comparing between the prediagnosis and postdiagnosis months, the proportion migrating to a different county increased by 8.5 percentage points (95% CI, 7.6-9.4 percentage points) for individuals with dementia and between 4.2 to 5.8 percentage points among those with myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or colon cancer. The difference-in-difference estimates indicated a 3.9 percentage point (95% CI, 3.7-4.0 percentage points) increase in intercounty migration and a 1.9 percentage point (95% CI, 1.8-2.0 percentage points) increase in interstate migration for patients with dementia, effectively doubling the likelihood of migration compared with the other conditions. Of the excess migrations resulting from dementia diagnosis, 55% occurred in community settings, and 45% occurred in institutional settings.

In this retrospective cohort study of Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries, dementia was associated with a marked increase in migration rates over other major illnesses. This finding underscores the need to understand the factors associated with these distinct migration behaviors.