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Integrating social, climate and environmental changes to confront accelerating global aging
Kaiyu Hua1, Yanfang Pan1, Jinqiong Fang1
1Department of Personnel, The First People's Hospital of Xiaoshan District, Xiaoshan Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Zhejiang, 311200, China.
BMC Public Health
|October 15, 2024
Summary
Global aging rates vary significantly by region, influenced by socio-economic, climatic, and environmental factors. Understanding these combined impacts is crucial for developing effective global aging policies.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology and Demography
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Studies
Background:
- The global population is aging rapidly, posing significant challenges to healthcare, social security, and economic stability.
- Existing research on global aging rates has not sufficiently integrated the complex interplay of socio-economic, climatic, and environmental factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the geographic heterogeneity of aging population growth rates globally from 1960 to 2022.
- To assess the impact of seven global stressors—socio-economic vulnerability, temperature, drought, seasonality, climate extremes, air pollution, and greening vulnerability—on aging population growth rates.
- To investigate the combined effects of these stressors and their thresholds on population aging.
Main Methods:
- Calculated geographic heterogeneity of aging population growth rates across 218 countries (1960-2022).
- Integrated public databases to assess the impacts of seven global stressors on aging population growth rates in 156 countries.
- Employed linear regression and random forest models to determine the significance and importance of stressors and their combined effects on aging rates.
Main Results:
- Significant global heterogeneity in aging rates was observed, with lower rates in Africa compared to Europe.
- High socio-economic vulnerability, increased climate risks (temperature, extreme climate), and decreased environmental quality significantly increased aging population growth rates.
- The number of global stressors exceeding a 25% threshold was a key predictor; regions with rapid aging (Africa, Asia) are more sensitive to climate change, while those with slower aging (Europe, Americas) are more sensitive to socio-economic and environmental factors.
Conclusions:
- Policy development must adopt a holistic approach, considering the combined effects of multiple global factors on population aging.
- Further research is essential to elucidate the complex interactions between various stressors and their cumulative impact on global aging trends.
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