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DeepVol: volatility forecasting from high-frequency data with dilated causal convolutions.

Fernando Moreno-Pino1,2, Stefan Zohren1,3

  • 1Oxford-Man Institute of Quantitative Finance, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

DeepVol, a novel deep learning model, forecasts equity volatility using high-frequency financial data. This approach enhances prediction accuracy by effectively utilizing intraday information, outperforming traditional methods for better risk management.

Keywords:
Deep learningDilated causal convolutionsHigh-frequency dataRealised volatilityVolatility forecasting

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Area of Science:

  • Quantitative Finance
  • Machine Learning
  • Financial Econometrics

Background:

  • Volatility forecasting is crucial for equity risk assessment.
  • Traditional statistical models and machine learning techniques are used for daily time-series volatility prediction.
  • High-frequency intraday data can improve volatility predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose DeepVol, a novel model using Dilated Causal Convolutions for day-ahead volatility forecasting.
  • To leverage high-frequency intraday data for enhanced volatility prediction accuracy.
  • To demonstrate the effectiveness of deep learning in capturing predictive information from financial time-series.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Dilated Causal Convolutions for time-series analysis.
  • Employed high-frequency intraday financial data from NASDAQ-100 over two years.
  • Evaluated DeepVol's performance against traditional methodologies.

Main Results:

  • Dilated convolutional filters effectively extract relevant information from intraday financial time-series.
  • DeepVol successfully leverages predictive information present in high-frequency data.
  • The model avoids limitations of daily data models, such as model misspecification and handcrafted features.

Conclusions:

  • DeepVol, a deep learning-based approach, accurately learns global features from high-frequency data.
  • The proposed model yields more accurate volatility predictions compared to traditional methods.
  • DeepVol contributes to producing more reliable equity risk measures.