Host-Parasitoid Systems are Vulnerable to Extinction via P-Tipping: Forest Tent Caterpillar as an Example
1Mathematics, Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences Unit 5 BLDG SCI, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 1177 Research Road, Kelowna, BC, V1V 1V7, Canada.
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|October 16, 2024
Summary
Discrete predator-prey models can experience phase-sensitive tipping (P-tipping) to extinction. This study confirms P-tipping in host-parasitoid systems, revealing similarities and differences with continuous models under environmental changes.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Mathematical Biology
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Continuous predator-prey models exhibit phase-sensitive tipping (P-tipping), where systems can collapse due to rapid parameter changes.
- The forest tent caterpillar serves as a model for economically significant host-parasitoid interactions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the existence and characteristics of P-tipping in a discrete-time host-parasitoid system.
- To explore the influence of environmental variability, particularly global warming-driven changes, on P-tipping.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of a discrete-time host-parasitoid model.
- Variation of the consumer's intrinsic growth rate to simulate environmental changes.
- Examination of phase plane dynamics and stochastic resonance.
Main Results:
- The discrete-time host-parasitoid system demonstrates P-tipping.
- Discrete P-tipping shares features with continuous models, including an Allee effect and occurrence in specific phase plane regions.
- Discrete P-tipping is linked to low-to-high productivity shifts and can arise from multiple disjoint regions.
Conclusions:
- Phase-sensitive tipping is a relevant phenomenon in discrete ecological models, such as host-parasitoid systems.
- Environmental changes consistent with global warming can induce P-tipping in these systems.
- Discrete P-tipping exhibits unique characteristics compared to its continuous-time counterpart, particularly regarding environmental productivity shifts.
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