Bounding the generation time distribution uncertainty on R₀ estimation from exponential growth rates

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Population Dynamics

Background:

• The basic reproduction number (R0) is crucial for understanding epidemic spread in susceptible populations.
• Estimating R0 often relies on the Euler-Lotka equation, which requires the Laplace transform of the generation interval distribution.
• Determining the precise generation time distribution is a significant challenge due to its unobservability.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a method for estimating R0 using limited information about the generation interval.
• To establish robust upper and lower bounds for R0 based on the moments of the generation interval distribution.
• To analyze the sensitivity of these bounds to variations in the distribution's moments.

Main Methods:

• Derivation of theoretical upper and lower bounds for R0.
• Utilizing the first few moments (e.g., mean, variance) of the generation interval distribution.
• Sensitivity analysis of the derived bounds with respect to changes in these moments.

Main Results:

• Successfully derived bounds for R0 that do not necessitate the complete generation interval distribution.
• Demonstrated that these bounds provide reliable estimates of the R0-r relationship.
• Quantified the impact of using different moments on the accuracy and range of the R0 bounds.

Conclusions:

• The proposed method offers a practical approach to R0 estimation when precise generation time data is unavailable.
• Bounds based on generation interval moments provide a robust alternative for epidemiological modeling.
• This work enhances the understanding of epidemic dynamics by offering more accessible R0 estimation techniques.