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Mapping high-resolution global gridded population distribution from 1870 to 2100
Haoming Zhuang1, Xiaoping Liu2, Bingjie Li3
1School of Geography and Tourism, Jiaying University, Meizhou, China; Guangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-Simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China.
The Science of the Total Environment
|October 16, 2024
Summary
A new 1km resolution global gridded population dataset from 1870-2100 reveals S-shaped population growth and increased flood exposure. This long-term data aids understanding of population dynamics and disaster risk. (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways)
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Geospatial Analysis
- Climate Change Adaptation
Background:
- Long-term global gridded population data is essential for understanding population dynamics and disaster exposure.
- Existing datasets are limited to single time periods, hindering comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To create a coherent, consistent, high-resolution (1km) global gridded population dataset spanning 1870-2100.
- To model historical population changes and future projections under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).
Main Methods:
- Developed a unified data and method framework for population data integration.
- Utilized observed population maps (2000-2020), historical hindcasts (1870-2000), and future projections (2020-2100).
- Validated the dataset against existing data, focusing on improved distribution within built-up areas.
Main Results:
- The dataset shows a global population increase of 4.17 to 8.49 times from 1870 to 2100 (SSPs), indicating pressure on sustainable development.
- Revealed diverse spatial and temporal population dynamics across regions and scenarios.
- Demonstrated a significant increase in global population exposure to floods, from 10.61% in 1870 to 11.98%-13.93% by 2100 (SSPs).
Conclusions:
- Provides a consistent, long-term (200+ years), high-resolution global gridded population dataset.
- Offers valuable insights into the full life cycle of global population spatiotemporal dynamics.
- Highlights the growing population expansion in flood-prone areas, emphasizing disaster risk and sustainable development challenges.
Keywords:
Long-term population distributionPopulation hindcastPopulation projectionShared socioeconomic pathwaysMore Related Videos
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