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A risk sharing model for old community renewal project based on bargaining game model
Xiaosen Huo1, Hao Xue1, Xingbang Xu2
1School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, 400074, China.
Scientific Reports
|October 16, 2024
Summary
Reasonable risk allocation is key for old community renewal projects (OCRP). This study proposes a model to determine optimal risk sharing between government and private sectors, ensuring smooth project implementation and sustainable urban development.
Area of Science:
- Urban Planning and Development
- Public Policy and Administration
- Risk Management
Background:
- Old community renewal projects (OCRP) face significant implementation challenges due to complex risk factors.
- Effective risk allocation between public and private sectors is crucial for the success of OCRP, particularly under Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify key risk factors in OCRP.
- To develop an evaluation system for participant risk allocation ability.
- To propose a model for optimal risk sharing between government and private sectors in OCRP.
Main Methods:
- Comprehensive identification of 20 key risk factors in OCRP.
- Establishment of a three-dimensional index system with nine evaluation indexes for risk allocation ability.
- Development of a risk-sharing model integrating the TOPSIS method and a bargaining game model.
Main Results:
- The study identified specific risks to be borne independently by the government (7 risks, including political, legal, and policy risks) and the private sector (8 risks, including financing, design, construction, operation, and maintenance risks).
- Risk-sharing ratios were determined for 5 risks requiring joint responsibility.
- A case study of an OCRP in Chongqing validated the model's applicability.
Conclusions:
- The proposed risk-sharing model provides a scientific basis for allocating risks in OCRP under PPP.
- Findings offer practical guidance for ensuring the smooth implementation of urban renewal projects and promoting sustainable development.
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