Contrasting dynamics of two incursions of low-pathogenicity avian influenza virus into Australia

The current panzootic of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus H5N1 demonstrates how viral incursions can have major ramifications for wildlife and domestic animals. Herein, we describe the recent incursion into Australia of two low pathogenicity avian influenza virus subtypes, H4 and H10, that exhibited contrasting evolutionary dynamics. Viruses detected from national surveillance and disease investigations between 2020 and 2022 revealed 27 genomes, 24 of which have at least one segment more closely related to Eurasian or North American avian influenza lineages than those already circulating in Australia. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that H4 viruses circulating in shorebirds represent a recent incursion from Asia that is distinct from those circulating concurrently in Australian waterfowl. Analysis of the internal segments further demonstrates exclusive, persistent circulation in shorebirds. This contrasts with H10, where a novel lineage has emerged in wild waterfowl, poultry, and captive birds across Australia and has likely replaced previously circulating H10 lineages through competitive exclusion. Elucidating different dynamics for avian influenza incursions supports effective disease risk identification and communication that better informs disease preparedness and response.