Socio-hydrological modelling using participatory System Dynamics modelling for enhancing urban flood resilience...

Cities are complex systems characterised by interdependencies among infrastructural, economic, social, ecological, and human elements. Urban surface water flooding poses a significant challenge due to climate change, population growth, and ageing infrastructure, often resulting in substantial economic losses and social disruption. Traditional hydrological modelling approaches for flood risk management, while providing invaluable support in the analysis of hydrological dynamics of floods, lack an understanding of the complex interplay between hydrological and non-hydrological (i.e., social, environmental, economic) aspects in an urban system, hindering effective flood risk management strategies. In this context, socio-hydrological modelling methods offer a complementary perspective to traditional hydrological models by integrating hydrological and social processes, thereby enhancing the understanding of the complex interactions driving flood resilience. The present work proposes a participatory socio-hydrological modelling approach based on System Dynamics (SD) to quantitatively analyse the interactions and feedback between flood risk and different aspects of the urban system. By combining scientific expertise with stakeholder knowledge, the modelling approach aims to provide decision-makers with a comprehensive understanding of flood dynamics and the effectiveness of resilience-building measures. Furthermore, the role of Blue-Green Infrastructure (BGI) in enhancing urban flood resilience, considering its interplay with grey infrastructure and interactions with various sub-systems, is explored. The results reveal i) the contribution of SD quantitative modelling in supporting the analysis of interactions between flood risk reduction measures and different sub-systems thus offering decision-makers actionable insights into the multifaceted nature of flood risk and resilience; ii) the added value provided by the combination of scientific and stakeholder knowledge in tailoring the model to the case study, quantifying socio-hydrological modelling dynamics limitedly explored in the scientific literature and supporting the selection of measures for increasing flood resilience; iii) the ability of BGI to provide not only hydrological benefits (mainly about the reduction of surface runoff) but also multiple social and environmental benefits (i.e., the co-benefits), especially when coupled with well-functioning grey infrastructure. Reference is made to one of the case studies of the CUSSH and CAMELLIA projects, namely Thamesmead (London, United Kingdom), a formerly inhospitable marshland currently undergoing a process of urban regeneration, with an increasing vulnerability to flooding.