Sweden surpasses the UNAIDS 95-95-95 target: estimating HIV-1 incidence, 2003 to 2022

BackgroundSweden reached the UNAIDS 90-90-90 target in 2015. It is important to reassess the HIV epidemiological situation due to ever-changing migration patterns, the roll-out of PrEP and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.AimWe aimed to assess the progress towards the UNAIDS 95-95-95 targets in Sweden by estimating the proportion of undiagnosed people with HIV (PWHIV) and HIV incidence trends.MethodsWe used routine laboratory data to inform a biomarker model of time since infection. When available, we used previous negative test dates, arrival dates for PWHIV from abroad and transmission modes to inform our incidence model. We also used data collected from the Swedish InfCareHIV register on antiretroviral therapy (ART).ResultsThe yearly incidence of HIV in Sweden decreased after 2014. In part, this was because the fraction of undiagnosed PWHIV had decreased almost twofold since 2006. After 2015, three of four PWHIV in Sweden were diagnosed within 1.9 and 3.2 years after infection among men who have sex with men and in heterosexual groups, respectively. While 80% of new PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV before immigration, they make up 50% of the current PWHIV in Sweden. By 2022, 96% of all PWHIV in Sweden had been diagnosed, and 99% of them were on ART, with 98% virally suppressed.ConclusionsBy 2022, about half of all PWHIV in Sweden acquired HIV abroad. Using our new biomarker model, we assess that Sweden has reached the UNAIDS goal at 96-99-98.