Predictors of shorter-, medium-, and longer-term outcome in schizophrenia

Predictors of outcome were identified for 163 patients with DSM-III schizophrenia divided into three cohorts by length of follow-up interval: 0-9 years (N = 57), 10-19 years (N = 59), and 20 years or more (N = 47). The most powerful variables predicting outcome differed between follow-up intervals. Characteristics of premorbid functioning were most influential in the first decade of follow-up, family functioning emerged as important in the second decade, and family genetics influenced the third decade and beyond. Signs and symptoms proved predictive in consistent ways for midrange and longer-term outcomes. The results demonstrate significant variability in both the type and strength of relevant predictors depending on follow-up length.