Integrating Multi-Cancer Early Detection (MCED) Tests with Standard Cancer Screening: System Dynamics Model...

Area of Science:

• Health economics
• Epidemiology
• Medical technology assessment

Background:

• Established cancer screening programs in Australia (colorectal, breast, cervical) improve early detection.
• Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests are emerging, but their additional benefits and impact on current screening are unclear.
• A system dynamics (SD) model was developed to assess the potential of MCED tests.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a simulation model evaluating the additional patient diagnoses and economic impact of MCED tests in Australia.
• To estimate the number of patients diagnosed at each cancer stage (I-IV, unknown) and associated costs.
• To analyze multiple scenarios based on population participation rates.

Main Methods:

• Developed an SD model representing existing standard of care (SOC) screening and potential MCED pathways.
• Investigated three MCED scenarios: substitute for non-participants, for high-risk ineligible individuals, and as a triage tool after SOC screening.
• Varied diagnostic accuracy and uptake rates to construct scenarios.

Main Results:

• The model estimates additional cancer detections and healthcare costs associated with MCED tests.
• It provides insights into the potential benefits of integrating MCED tests into the Australian healthcare system.
• The simulation facilitates analysis of various scenarios to inform decision-making.

Conclusions:

• Comprehensive evidence on MCED clinical utility and outcomes is still developing.
• The SD model offers a valuable tool for analyzing MCED tests within the Australian context.
• Results can guide policy, clinical practice, and future research priorities for MCED adoption.