Effect of forest cover on lung cancer incidence: a case study in Southwest China

Forests are closely linked to human health, particularly about lung cancer incidence. However, there is currently limited research on how forest coverage and different types of forests influence lung cancer rates. This study aims to address this gap by examining how the coverage of various forest types impacts lung cancer incidence in Southwest China, thereby providing theoretical support for health-oriented forest structure planning.

We focused on 438 counties in Southwest China, employing spatial autocorrelation analysis (Moran's I) and spatial regression models [including Spatial Lag Model (SLM), Spatial Error Model (SEM), and Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)] to explore the effects of forest coverage and internal forest structure on lung cancer incidence. We used ArcGIS to visualize lung cancer incidence and forest coverage rates across the study area.

The study found a significant negative correlation between forest coverage and lung cancer incidence. Specifically, for every 1% increase in forest coverage, lung cancer incidence decreased by 0.017 levels. Evergreen forests and mixed forests showed a significant negative impact on lung cancer rates, with evergreen forests having a particularly strong effect; a 1% increase in evergreen forest coverage was associated with a 0.027 level decrease in lung cancer incidence. In contrast, deciduous forests had no significant impact. Additionally, the study revealed a marked spatial heterogeneity in lung cancer incidence and forest coverage across Southwest China: higher lung cancer rates were observed in the eastern regions, while forest coverage was predominantly concentrated in the western and southern regions.

This study demonstrates that increasing forest coverage, particularly of evergreen and mixed forests, can help reduce lung cancer incidence. This effect may be related to the ability of forests to absorb harmful gasses and particulate matter from the air. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity in lung cancer incidence suggests that regional economic development levels and urbanization processes may also play significant roles in the spatial distribution of lung cancer rates. The findings provide empirical support for the development of targeted forest conservation and development policies aimed at optimizing regional forest structures to reduce the risk of lung cancer.