Capturing fine-scale coral dynamics with a metacommunity modelling framework.

Area of Science:

• Marine ecology
• Ecosystem modeling
• Coral reef science

Background:

• Natural systems display significant spatial variability across scales.
• Accurate ecosystem models require integrating biological mechanisms for ecological insight and management.
• Coral reef research has primarily focused on inter-reef variability, neglecting significant intra-reef heterogeneity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a coral metacommunity modeling framework (C~scape) for fine-scale, spatiotemporal predictions of coral dynamics.
• To integrate coral demography with population responses to physical and environmental spatial layers.
• To highlight the importance of within-reef variability in coral metacommunity dynamics.

Main Methods:

• Developed C~scape, a modeling framework integrating coral demography and environmental responses.
• Utilized satellite-derived habitat maps to spatially modulate community growth, proxying for environmental factors.
• Applied the model to a Great Barrier Reef case study for hindcasting coral cover dynamics.

Main Results:

• Demonstrated C~scape's capability for hindcasting coral cover dynamics at fine scales.
• Showcased that overlooking within-reef variability can result in misleading metacommunity dynamics.
• Validated the model's utility in predicting coral dynamics across spatial scales.

Conclusions:

• C~scape offers a robust framework for spatiotemporal predictions of coral dynamics.
• Accounting for within-reef variability is essential for accurate coral reef ecosystem modeling and management.
• The framework facilitates exploration of management and restoration scenarios at relevant scales.