Estimating Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic Between 2020-2022 in Korea

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted mortality globally.
• Analyzing excess mortality is crucial for understanding the pandemic's full impact.
• This study focuses on excess mortality in South Korea from 2020-2022.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze excess mortality trends in South Korea between 2020 and 2022.
• To investigate the relationship between excess mortality, age, sex, and COVID-19 variants.
• To inform public health strategies for pandemic response.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data on all-cause deaths (2010-2022) from Statistics Korea.
• Acquired COVID-19 mortality data from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.
• Employed a multivariate linear regression model with seasonal effects, stratified by age and sex, to estimate baseline mortality.

Main Results:

• Excess mortality remained non-significant until November 2021, then increased sharply.
• The highest excess mortality occurred during the Omicron (BA.1/BA.2) dominant period (March-April 2022).
• Excess mortality and COVID-19 deaths increased with age, with the highest rates observed in individuals aged 85 and older.

Conclusions:

• The COVID-19 pandemic, especially with highly transmissible variants, significantly increased overall mortality, particularly among the elderly.
• Healthcare resources should be prioritized for the elderly during pandemics.
• Establishing robust excess mortality surveillance systems is vital for effective pandemic response and policy evaluation.