The spatial-temporal evolution patterns of landslide-oriented resilience in mountainous city: A case study of...

Cities, as complex systems with multi-interconnected subsystems, face significant challenges from both rapid urbanization and climate change. Ensuring high resilience in urban areas is essential for managing these dynamic risks effectively. This study introduces an innovative, data-driven approach to quantitatively analyze the spatial-temporal evolution patterns of urban resilience, validated through a case study of Chongqing, a representative mountainous city in China. Based on historical landslide data from Chongqing (2010-2020), which includes 4464 events, along with indicator data from the Chongqing Statistical Yearbook, we developed a comprehensive assessment framework. This framework incorporates 33 variables, covering indicators of physical-environmental resilience (PER) and socio-economic resilience (SER). The model integrates the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), and Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model. Key findings include: (1) Social development in mountainous cities like Chongqing follows a point-to-area pattern. Although there is an overall increase in SER, the CCD in more developed areas (Chongqing urban circle) was generally higher than in less developed areas (northeastern and southeastern Chongqing) (2) The PER model demonstrated exceptional performance (AUC values consistently above 0.95). Spatiotemporal evolution models reveal that Chongqing maintains a high overall PER. Notably, from 2019 to 2020, the proportion of administrative units classified as highly resilient peaked at 24.5%, marking a historical high. (3) Multi-year average rainfall primarily impacts PER (ranked first), while Gross Domestic Product (GDP) significantly affect SER. The development of multi-dimensional recovery indicators provides a robust framework for assessing resilience against landslides in mountainous cities. The CCD model illustrates the importance of regional dynamic coordinated development in resilience trajectories. This study provides a detailed blueprint for the scientific development of resilient mountainous cities, emphasizing the need for a spatial-temporal perspective on resilience and the benefits of coordinated regional development.