Comparative ecological analysis and predictive modeling of tick-borne pathogens.

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Entomology
• Epidemiology
• Disease Ecology

Background:

• Tick-borne diseases are a major North American health concern.
• Black-legged tick populations and associated diseases like Lyme disease are expanding.
• Limited research exists on environmental factors influencing Babesia microti and Anaplasma phagocytophilium.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the impact of environmental features on tick-borne pathogen infection prevalence in New York State.
• To investigate the ecological determinants of Babesia microti and Anaplasma phagocytophilium distribution.
• To forecast future infection prevalence using validated biogeographic models.

Main Methods:

• Utilized over a decade of surveillance data (2009-2019) from New York State.
• Developed biogeographic models incorporating over 250 environmental variables.
• Modeled infection prevalence of Borrelia burgdorferi, Babesia microti, and Anaplasma phagocytophilium in Ixodes scapularis.

Main Results:

• Observed consistent northward and westward expansion of Babesia microti across New York.
• Documented fine-scale spatial variation in Anaplasma phagocytophilium range.
• Identified divergent environmental influences on pathogen distribution, suggesting unique ecological dynamics.

Conclusions:

• Environmental factors significantly shape the prevalence and distribution of tick-borne pathogens.
• Biogeographic models can accurately forecast pathogen prevalence.
• Findings support targeted disease prevention strategies by highlighting ecological differences between pathogens.