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Updated: Jun 26, 2026

Experimental Multiscale Methodology for Predicting Material Fouling Resistance
Fuzzy bow-tie analysis for mitigating self-heating risks in maritime coal transportation
Barış Temel1, Cenk Sakar2, Muge Buber2
1Dokuz Eylul University, Graduate School of Social Science, Department of Maritime Business Administration, Tinaztepe Campus, Buca, Izmir, Turkey.
Coal self-heating in maritime transport poses risks. Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis enhances risk assessment for spontaneous combustion, improving safety for coal transportation and preventing marine pollution.
Area of Science:
- Maritime Safety
- Risk Management
- Environmental Science
Background:
- Coal self-heating is a significant hazard in maritime transportation, leading to spontaneous combustion, environmental damage, and economic losses.
- Traditional risk assessment methods struggle with the uncertainties inherent in coal properties and transportation conditions.
- Accurate forecasting of incidents, such as toxic gas emissions from self-heating coal, is critical for preventing marine pollution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To apply Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis for assessing and mitigating risks of coal self-heating during maritime transport.
- To provide a more reliable risk assessment tool that effectively handles data uncertainties.
- To offer practical guidance for improving coal handling safety and reducing environmental harm.
Main Methods:
- Utilized Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis, integrating expert judgments to evaluate risk factors and safety barriers.
- Compared the effectiveness of Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis against traditional deterministic methods for risk assessment.
- Analyzed key contributing factors to self-heating incidents, including ventilation, air gaps, and inaccurate coal property declarations.
Main Results:
- Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis offers a comprehensive and reliable method for risk assessment in complex maritime environments, outperforming deterministic approaches.
- Identified improper ventilation, large air gaps, inaccurate coal declarations, inadequate cargo monitoring, and non-compliance with the International Maritime Solid Bulk Cargoes (IMSBC) Code as major risk contributors.
- Demonstrated the model's capability in accurately forecasting incidents that could lead to environmental harm.
Conclusions:
- Fuzzy Bow-Tie analysis is a reliable and flexible tool for managing uncertainties and enhancing risk assessment in maritime coal transportation.
- Findings provide practical recommendations for shipping companies and port authorities to improve coal handling practices and safety procedures.
- The study contributes to reducing the potential for accidents and environmental damage associated with self-heating coal.
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