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Updated: Jun 9, 2025

Author Spotlight: Enhancing Diagnostic Strategies and Biomarker Development for Comprehensive Lung Function Analysis
Published on: August 9, 2024
Longitudinal Changes in Peak Expiratory Flow Predict Risk for Incident Dementia
Patrick T Donahue1,2, Aparna Balasubramanian3, Qian-Li Xue2,4
1Department of Mental Health, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Declines in respiratory function, measured by peak expiratory flow (PEF), significantly increase dementia risk in older adults. This study highlights PEF as a key indicator for cognitive decline and dementia prevention strategies.
Area of Science:
- Gerontology
- Neurology
- Pulmonology
Background:
- Impaired respiratory function, indicated by peak expiratory flow (PEF), is linked to higher dementia risk.
- Existing research primarily uses cross-sectional PEF data, leaving longitudinal associations underexplored.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the longitudinal association between changes in respiratory function (PEF) and the risk of developing dementia in older adults.
- To determine if the rate of decline in PEF over five years predicts incident dementia in the subsequent five years.
Main Methods:
- Utilized 10 years of data (2011-2021) from 2,439 adults aged 65+ in the National Health and Aging Trends Study.
- Estimated 5-year PEF changes (2011-2016) using linear mixed-effects models and categorized them into quartiles.
- Employed discrete-time Cox proportional hazards models to assess dementia risk, controlling for covariates.
Main Results:
- Rapid PEF declines (2011-2016) were associated with an 85% increased risk of incident dementia (2017-2021) compared to no PEF decline.
- 338 cases (13.9%) of incident dementia were identified in the 5-year follow-up period.
- Findings remained robust across sensitivity analyses.
Conclusions:
- Declines in peak expiratory flow may precede cognitive decline, positioning respiratory function as a significant dementia risk factor in older populations.
- Peak flow meters offer a simple, cost-effective method for assessing respiratory function and potentially identifying individuals at higher risk for dementia.
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