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A model for predicting performance on the NBME Part I examination.

M Donnelly, K Yindra, S Y Long

    Journal of Medical Education
    |February 1, 1986
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Medical school course scores and Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores can predict National Board of Medical Examiners Part I (NBME-I) exam performance. Early identification of at-risk students allows for timely academic intervention.

    Area of Science:

    • Medical Education
    • Academic Assessment
    • Student Performance Prediction

    Background:

    • The National Board of Medical Examiners Part I (NBME-I) examination is critical for medical licensure.
    • Predicting student performance on the NBME-I is essential for identifying those needing academic support.
    • Previous studies have explored various predictors of medical licensing exam success.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To determine the predictive relationships between medical school achievement variables and NBME-I performance.
    • To assess the incremental predictive accuracy of incorporating basic science course scores into a prediction model.
    • To identify the most effective combination of predictors for NBME-I success.

    Main Methods:

    • Multiple regression analyses were used to model NBME-I performance.

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  • Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) composite scores and first- and second-year basic science course examination averages were used as predictors.
  • Prediction equations were cross-validated on independent cohorts of medical students.

    • Main Results:

    • Adding basic science course scores significantly increased the multiple correlation for predicting NBME-I scores.
    • The overall accuracy in predicting passing or failing the NBME-I did not substantially improve with additional course data.
    • The optimal prediction model combined MCAT scores with first-semester anatomy course examination scores.

    Conclusions:

    • Academic achievement in basic science courses, particularly anatomy, combined with MCAT scores, offers valuable predictive insights for NBME-I performance.
    • Early NBME-I performance predictions can facilitate targeted interventions for students identified as at risk of failure.
    • This predictive approach supports proactive academic support strategies in medical education.