Experimentally-based Fe-catalyzed ethene oligomerization machine learning model provides highly accurate prediction...

Linear α-olefins (1-alkenes) are critical comonomers for ethene copolymerization. A major impediment in the development of new homogeneous Fe catalysts for ethene oligomerization to produce comonomers and other important commercial products is the prediction of propagation versus termination rates that control the α-olefin distribution (e.g., 1-butene through 1-decene), which is often referred to as a K-value. Because the transition states for propagation versus termination are generally separated by less than a one kcal mol^-1 difference in energy, this selectivity cannot be accurately predicted by either DFT or wavefunction methods (even DLPNO-CCSD(T)). Therefore, we developed a sub-kcal mol^-1 accuracy machine learning model based on several hundred experimental selectivity values and straightforward 2D chemical and physical features that enables the prediction of α-olefin distribution K-values. As part of our model, we developed a new ad hoc feature that boosted the model performance. This machine learning model captures the effects of a broad range of ligand architectures and chemically nonintuitive trends in oligomerization selectivity. Our machine learning model was experimentally validated by prediction of a K-value for a new Fe phosphaneyl-pyridinyl-quinoline catalyst followed by experimental measurement that showed precise agreement. In addition to quantitative predictions, we demonstrate how this machine learning model can provide qualitative catalyst design using proximity of pairs type analysis.