A method for estimating maximum safe installable power for groundwater extraction with application to Africa

New groundwater development is a likely way to meet growing global water demand but needs careful management. To help inform the sustainable development of groundwater resources, a novel method based on the maximum safe installable power for water pumping systems and the maximum safe remaining installable power (considering current abstraction) is developed. The proposed model couples energy, technology and hydrogeological parameters, and is then developed to compute the maximum power that can be safely installed per km² without exceeding a maximum annual pumpable volume, calculated through available recharge and storage. The model is applied to estimate the maximum safe installable power across Africa with a 0.2-degree resolution, using available energy and hydrogeological data. Constrained by recharge (considering that 25 % of the annual recharge is available for utilization), the maximum safe installable power ranges between 0 and 9960 W/km² across Africa with regions such as the Congo Basin (∼340 W/km²), and western Africa between the Ivory Coast and Nigeria (∼230 W/km²) identified as having high potential for sustainable pumping system development. Constrained by storage (considering that 0.1 % of storage can be withdrawn per year), it ranges between 0 and 13,425 W/km² highlighting the ability to harness storage for pumping system development in the large aquifers of Northern Sahara (∼8720 W/km²). When considering limitations posed by both groundwater recharge and aquifer storage (considering that 25 % of the annual recharge and 0.1 % of storage can be withdrawn per year), along with current groundwater withdrawal, 93 % of the maximum safe installable power remains still installable on average across Africa. Nevertheless, 2 % of the locations are estimated to be already experiencing overexploitation, particularly in Sudan, northern Africa, and northeastern South Africa. These findings provide a novel and adaptable way to examine water security, which can assist institutions in targeting investments to meet water demand sustainably.