Recurrent Flooding and Household Food Access in Central Java, Indonesia

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Agricultural Economics
• Public Health

Background:

• Recurring flooding poses a significant threat to household food security in Central Java.
• Understanding the long-term impacts of flooding on dietary patterns is crucial for developing effective adaptation strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the influence of recurrent flooding on household food access over 22 years in Central Java.
• To examine the relationship between flooding, adaptive capacity indicators, and food access outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Linked Global Surface Water (GSW) data (1984-2015) with the Indonesian Family Life Survey.
• Measured recurrent flooding using the fraction of episodically flooded district raster cells.
• Analyzed household food expenditure share (FES) and dietary diversity score (DDS) using generalized linear mixed models and random forest regression.

Main Results:

• Flooding significantly predicted household food expenditure share (FES) more than dietary diversity score (DDS).
• Household wealth was associated with improved FES and DDS, with a stronger effect in flood-affected areas.
• Access to credit, while generally improving food access, was linked to reduced DDS in flood-prone districts.

Conclusions:

• Wealthier households demonstrate greater adaptive capacity to maintain food access amidst recurrent flooding.
• Access to credit may be less effective or even detrimental to dietary diversity in flood-affected regions.
• Future research should integrate land use data to further elucidate the complex interactions between flooding, adaptation, and household food security.