Key Factors for Improving Predictive Accuracy and Avoiding Overparameterization of the PBPK Absorption Model in Food...

Background/Objectives: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) absorption models are instrumental for assessing drug absorption prior to clinical food effect studies, though discrepancies in predictive and actual outcomes are observed. This study focused on immediate release formulations of weakly basic water-insoluble compounds, namely rivaroxaban, ticagrelor, and PB-201, to investigate factors that could improve the predictive accuracy of PBPK models regarding food effects. Methods: Comprehensive in vitro experimental results provided the basis for the development of mechanistic absorption models, which were then combined with mechanistic disposition models to predict the systemic exposure of the model drugs in both fasted and fed states. Results: The developed PBPK models showed moderate to high predictive accuracy for food effects in Caucasian populations. For the Chinese population, the ticagrelor model's initial overestimation of fed-state absorption was addressed by updating the permeability parameters from Caco-2 cell assays to those derived from parallel artificial membrane permeability assays in FaSSIF and FeSSIF media. This refinement was also applied to the rivaroxaban and ticagrelor models, leading to a more accurate representation of absorption in Caucasians. Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of apparent permeability in enhancing the predictive accuracy of PBPK absorption models for weakly basic water-insoluble compounds. Furthermore, the precipitation of PB-201 in the two-stage transfer experiments suggests that precipitation may not be a universal phenomenon for such compounds in vivo. Consequently, the precipitation rate constant, a theoretically essential parameter, should be determined based on experimental evidence to avoid overparameterization and ensure robust predictive accuracy of PBPK models.