Disability trends among elderly Ukrainians in war conditions: a 10-year retrospective study

Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in elderly are a significant problem in Ukraine. It is expected that the ongoing war will augment this problem. The study aimed to analyze the trends of disability due to NCDs s in newly-diagnosed elderly patients between 2013 and 2023.

This retrospective study included data obtained from the official document "Report on the Causes of Disability and Indications for Medical, Professional, and Social Rehabilitation" commissioned by the Ministry of Health of Ukraine. The data on disability due to NCDs s were obtained from for 2013-2023.

During the 2013-2021 the average number of disabled elderly patients due to NCDs per 10,000 elderly persons was significantly lower in compare with working-age. During the first year of full-scaled war the average number of disabled elderly patients due to NCDS s per 10,000 elderly persons dramatically increased by 2-fold, and in 2023 - by 2.8-fold against 2013 value (p < 0.05), while in working-age the disability rate increased significantly only in 2023 by 1.4-fold compared to the pre-war level. In 2013-2021 the main causes of disability among those related to NCDs in elderly were cardiovascular diseases, followed by cancer. In 2022 compared to the pre-war level, the indicators of disability of the elderly due to CVD increased by 1.5 times, due to cerebrovascular diseases - by 2.2 times, due to cancer - by 1.7 times, due to musculoskeletal diseases - by 2 times (p < 0.05). The most significant increase in the number of elderly people with disabilities during the full-scale war occurred due to coronary artery disease - by 55.1%, and osteoarthritis - by 83.4% from baseline in 2013. It estemated the differences in indicators of disability of elderly between regions of Ukraine, significantly higher indicators of disability of the elderly due to cardiovascular diseases, cancer, cerebrovascular diseases, musculoskeletal diseases were noted in the frontline regions.

Data on primary disability among elderly Ukrainians indicates a significant increase in NCDs-related disability during the war in compare with working population, especially in frontline regions and regions with a high concentration of displaced persons. In this structure of NCDs-related increasing disability, CVD, oncology and musculoskeletal diseases system prevailed.