Are Muscle and Fat Loss Predictive of Clinical Events in Pancreatic Cancer? The Importance of Precision Metrics

Muscle and fat loss from cancer may have prognostic significance. Skeletal muscle and fat areas measured at L3 on a CT scan correlate with body muscle and fat mass. We wished to know if reduced skeletal muscle area or fat on diagnostic CT scans or changes from initial CT scans in patients with pancreatic cancer who died in 2018 and 2019 predicted mortality.

Electronic records of 112 patients with locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer were used to extract stage, age, gender, comorbidities, weight, and height at the time of the first CT scan. Survival (in days) was defined from the first CT scan to the death date. Patients had at least one CT scan of the abdomen. I. Two trained medical students read scans independently using TeraRecon software (Durham, NC). Results were averaged, and the differences determined precision. Interclass correlation coefficient (ICC), coefficient of variation, and least significant change determined the precision between readers. Independent prognostic modeling included age and BMI.

An evaluable sample of 104 with an average age of 67, 56 were male. Nearly half had a TNM Stage of IV (45%). The average Charlson Comorbidity index is 7.2. In those undergoing repeat scans, most were in the timeframe of 60-120 days. Changes in visceral fat in men in the unadjusted Cox proportional hazard model and reduced skeletal muscle area in the age-adjusted model of men predicted mortality. In contrast, myosteatosis in women marginally predicted improved survival. ICC's precision between readers was adequate but by least significant change would have missed subtle, clinically important changes.

Muscle loss during chemotherapy in men predicted mortality in men but not women. Precision is an important metric when measuring body composition.

Muscle loss in men during chemotherapy of pancreatic cancer predicts mortality.