Improving Process-Based Modelling to Simulate the Effects of Low-Temperature Stress During Pre-Anthesis on the...

Low temperatures in late spring pose a potential threat to the maintenance of grain yield and quality. Despite the importance of protein and starch in wheat quality, they are often overlooked in models addressing climate change effects. In this study, we conducted multiyear environment-controlled phytotron experiments and observed adverse effects resulting from low-temperature stress (LTS) on plant carbon and nitrogen dynamics, grain protein and starch formation, and sink capacity. We quantified the relationships between low temperature during the jointing and booting stages and plant nitrogen uptake, grain nitrogen accumulation, grain starch accumulation, grain setting, and potential grain weight using source-sink relationship-based methods. The LTS factor was introduced to account for the cultivar-specific to LTS at different growth stages. Compared with the original model, the improved model produced fewer errors when simulating aboveground nitrogen accumulation, grain protein concentration, grain starch concentration, grain starch yield, grain number, and grain weight under LTS, with reductions of 60%, 71%, 73%, 58%, 50% and 65%, respectively. The improvements in the model enhance its mechanism and applicability in assessing short-term successive frost effects on wheat grain quality. Furthermore, when using the improved model, special attention should be given to the low-temperature sensitivity parameters.