Water quality-fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Environmental Science
• Fisheries Science

Background:

• Aquatic ecosystems face complex challenges from human activities and management.
• Bottom hypoxia, driven by nutrients and temperature, significantly impacts freshwater and marine environments.
• Effective decision-making requires new approaches for managing these dynamic ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To link predictive models of hypoxia with historical fishery data and climate projections.
• To assess nutrient management targets and their impact on fisheries.
• To demonstrate the utility of simple models for ecosystem-based management.

Main Methods:

• Integrated a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia.
• Analyzed century-long commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (1928-2022).
• Incorporated climate projections for future hypoxic extent (2030-2099).

Main Results:

• Identified tradeoffs between water quality goals and current fishery needs regarding nutrient load reduction targets.
• Projected climate change will exacerbate hypoxia, requiring stricter future nutrient regulations.
• Demonstrated a link between ecosystem-scale bottom hypoxia and changes in fishery harvests.

Conclusions:

• Simple, robust models and monitoring data can guide decision-making in large aquatic ecosystems.
• Adaptive ecosystem-based management is crucial for addressing nonstationarity and multiple environmental drivers.
• Balancing water quality and fisheries management is essential for maintaining ecosystem services.