Patient assignment and quality performance: a misaligned system

To assess the congruence between patient assignment and established patients as well as their association with Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set (HEDIS) quality performance.

A retrospective cross-sectional analysis from January 2020 to February 2022.

The study setting is a fully integrated health care delivery system in Phoenix, Arizona. The study population includes Medicaid patients who received primary care services or were assigned to a primary care physician (PCP) at the study setting by 5 Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). We identified 4 possible relationships between the established patients (2 primary care visits) and the assigned patients (assigned by the MCO to the study setting): true-positive, false-positive, true-negative, and false-negative classifications. Precision and recall measures were used to assess congruence (or incongruence). Outcome measures were HEDIS quality metrics.

A total of 100,030 Medicaid enrollees (adults and children) were established and/or assigned to the study setting from 5 separate payers. Only 15% were congruently established and assigned to the physician (true-positive). The overall precision was 21%, and the overall recall was 37%. The HEDIS quality performance was significantly higher (P < .05) for established patients for 5 of 6 metrics compared with patients who were not established.

The vast majority of assigned patients were not treated by the assigned PCP, yet better patient outcomes were seen with an established patient. As the health system rapidly adopts value-based payments, more rigorous methodologies are essential to identify physician-patient relationships.