Forecasting mortality and DALYs from air pollution in SAARC nations
Amna Amer1, Nadia Mushtaq1, Olayan Albalawi2
1Department of Statistics, Forman Christian College (A Chartered University), Lahore, Pakistan.
Scientific Reports
|October 29, 2024
Summary
Air pollution is projected to increase mortality and DALYs in SAARC countries, with Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution and Ambient Ozone Pollution as key drivers. Neural networks provided the most accurate forecasts for this escalating health burden.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Epidemiology
- Data Science
Background:
- Air pollution poses a significant global health threat, particularly in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) region.
- Quantifying the future burden of air pollution-related diseases is crucial for effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To forecast the impact of air pollution on mortality and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) in SAARC countries from 2020 to 2030.
- To identify the primary air pollutants contributing to this health burden and compare the predictive accuracy of different forecasting models.
Main Methods:
- Time Series and Machine Learning techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential Smoothing (ETS), and Neural Networks (NN).
- Analysis of projected trends in deaths and DALYs attributed to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APM), Ambient Ozone Pollution (AOP), and Household Air Pollution (HAP).
- Model performance evaluation using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) to determine the most accurate forecasting method.
Main Results:
- A consistent upward trend in air pollution-attributable mortality and DALYs is projected for SAARC countries between 2020 and 2030.
- Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APM) and Ambient Ozone Pollution (AOP) are identified as major contributors to the increasing health burden.
- The Neural Network model demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to ARIMA and ETS, with lower RMSE values.
- Significant variations in the prevalence of pollution-related deaths and DALYs were observed across SAARC nations, with India and Pakistan showing high rates for APM, Bangladesh and Pakistan for AOP, and Nepal for HAP.
Conclusions:
- Air pollution presents a growing and substantial health risk in SAARC countries, necessitating immediate and targeted control measures.
- Effective policymaking informed by accurate forecasting is essential to mitigate the escalating mortality and DALYs associated with various air pollution types.
- The findings highlight the need for regional cooperation and tailored strategies to address the diverse impacts of air pollution across SAARC nations.
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